Thursday, June 25, 2009
Sunday, June 14, 2009
「教授協會與學生運動」：實際可行的建議方案
今年2月15日，筆者曾經為文公開呼籲，藉著海內外兩個台灣人教授協會聯合大會，共同來探討「教授協會與學生運動」的重要，共同來開發保護學生運動，共同來合力培育學生領導人才。今天，筆者趁著這次非常難得的機會，提出下列三點實際可行的建議方案，希望給大家來做參考。
第一點建議方案，台灣教授協會儘速成立「學生運動部」。負責推展配合參與學生運動，該部成員由有經驗的老中青教授與各區學生代表組成，學生為主體，教授為輔導。大家都知道，年青學生是台灣的希望，學生的想法與作法，悠關台灣未來存亡，如果有教授引導與啟發，多讀台灣歷史文化，多開台灣問題討論會，分析當下台灣重要議題，共同參加台灣人活動，互相學習進步。
第二點建議方案，「學生運動部」儘速成立「電子連絡網站」。負責北、桃竹、中、南、東、各區校園的群眾運動大串連。平常無大事，透過電子連絡網站，交談讀書心得，分析重要議題，互相連絡感情。周邊有大事，透過電子連絡網站，緊急戰時協商，提出有效對策，互相支援抗爭。大家都知道，沒有學生大串連，沒有教授做後盾，各校區的學生運動，容易流失，很難持久。
第三點建議方案，儘速成立「學生運動部」與「年青學者專案」連線。北美洲台灣人教授協會現在設有「年青學者專案」，加強北美洲台灣人教授與學生互動對話。這個「年青學者專案」，必須繼續擴大發揮，透過電子連絡網站，來與台灣教授協會的「學生運動部」成立連線。海內外兩個台灣人教授協會，可以互相邀請幾名學生代表，來參加各自的年會或者參加對方的年會。
結語：學生運動不好做，不顯眼，零零碎碎，吃力不討好，而且學生想法不一，流動性大，負責「學生運動部」與「年青學者專案」的教授同仁，要有耐心，長期耕耘，否則很難看到成果。海內外兩個台灣人教授協會會員，大家共同協力合作，開發保護學生運動，培育未來領導人才。
作者 : 黃界清 (德州農工大學傑出講座教授，前北美洲台灣人教授協會會長)
第一點建議方案，台灣教授協會儘速成立「學生運動部」。負責推展配合參與學生運動，該部成員由有經驗的老中青教授與各區學生代表組成，學生為主體，教授為輔導。大家都知道，年青學生是台灣的希望，學生的想法與作法，悠關台灣未來存亡，如果有教授引導與啟發，多讀台灣歷史文化，多開台灣問題討論會，分析當下台灣重要議題，共同參加台灣人活動，互相學習進步。
第二點建議方案，「學生運動部」儘速成立「電子連絡網站」。負責北、桃竹、中、南、東、各區校園的群眾運動大串連。平常無大事，透過電子連絡網站，交談讀書心得，分析重要議題，互相連絡感情。周邊有大事，透過電子連絡網站，緊急戰時協商，提出有效對策，互相支援抗爭。大家都知道，沒有學生大串連，沒有教授做後盾，各校區的學生運動，容易流失，很難持久。
第三點建議方案，儘速成立「學生運動部」與「年青學者專案」連線。北美洲台灣人教授協會現在設有「年青學者專案」，加強北美洲台灣人教授與學生互動對話。這個「年青學者專案」，必須繼續擴大發揮，透過電子連絡網站，來與台灣教授協會的「學生運動部」成立連線。海內外兩個台灣人教授協會，可以互相邀請幾名學生代表，來參加各自的年會或者參加對方的年會。
結語：學生運動不好做，不顯眼，零零碎碎，吃力不討好，而且學生想法不一，流動性大，負責「學生運動部」與「年青學者專案」的教授同仁，要有耐心，長期耕耘，否則很難看到成果。海內外兩個台灣人教授協會會員，大家共同協力合作，開發保護學生運動，培育未來領導人才。
作者 : 黃界清 (德州農工大學傑出講座教授，前北美洲台灣人教授協會會長)
Monday, June 1, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
保密防諜 人人有責 !?
軍方查獲一名涉嫌偷拍我國軍「資電作戰指揮部」的中國「觀光客」馬中飛，台北地檢署將馬中飛偷拍軍事設施案移轉高檢署偵辦，高檢署經過訊問及現場模擬後，未做任何強制處分，直接將他釋回，責成邀訪單位未來要協助被告隨傳隨到。邀馬中飛來台的中華民國商品流通產經協會，沒有任何人說明此事，據記者了解，商品流通產經協會主要辦公地點，是向新生北路一間清潔企業社承租一張辦公桌而已，並沒有自己的辦公室，而出租辦公桌的房東則指出，並不清楚該協會的運作狀況，只知道平時協會會務人員並不在這邊辦公，只是偶爾會來收取信件及文件。檢方認為本案所涉二審管轄外患罪，為一年以下徒刑輕罪，且未規定處罰過失犯。勘驗現場後，認為現場周圍無嚴格管制，確有可能誤闖，逐一比對馬中飛照相地點後，不排除有非故意的可能，未來若是無法找出被告涉案不法動機及具體事證，有可能只能認定被告係為誤闖的非故意犯。
上任後拒絕達賴訪台，不斷親中的馬先生，在上任週年記者會中，以極其誠懇的表情說到: 「那你說主權有流失，你告訴我哪裡有流失？如果真的有，我把它補起來嘛！」。才說要補起來，誤闖的、非故意二審管轄外患罪犯就放回中國了。
之前野柳的女王頭才被中國觀光客刻字，今天軍事設施又被中國「觀光客」偷拍，德重於才的劉兆玄院長還打算開放世界各國都沒開放的中客自由行，劉兆玄指出，開放陸客自由行是政策方向，目前先降低陸客組團人數，“5人1團馬上就可實行”，接下來會與對岸協商把組團人數降至2或3人……。
記得小時候老師教的嗎?小心!匪諜就在你身邊。
上任後拒絕達賴訪台，不斷親中的馬先生，在上任週年記者會中，以極其誠懇的表情說到: 「那你說主權有流失，你告訴我哪裡有流失？如果真的有，我把它補起來嘛！」。才說要補起來，誤闖的、非故意二審管轄外患罪犯就放回中國了。
之前野柳的女王頭才被中國觀光客刻字，今天軍事設施又被中國「觀光客」偷拍，德重於才的劉兆玄院長還打算開放世界各國都沒開放的中客自由行，劉兆玄指出，開放陸客自由行是政策方向，目前先降低陸客組團人數，“5人1團馬上就可實行”，接下來會與對岸協商把組團人數降至2或3人……。
記得小時候老師教的嗎?小心!匪諜就在你身邊。
Friday, May 22, 2009
[Forbes] An outbreak of peace across the Strait could be dangerous
Gordon G. Chang, 05.22.09, 12:01 AM ET
On Wednesday, Ma Ying-jeou marked his first anniversary as president of Taiwan by calling his initial year "fruitful." And he had just cause for doing so. His most notable accomplishment so far has been a marked improvement in relations between the island republic and China. "In one year, we have transformed the strait from a dangerous flashpoint to a conduit of peace and prosperity," he told reporters in Taipei.
Last month, Taipei and Beijing, which both claim to govern "China," entered into historic agreements covering financial cooperation, regularly scheduled flights and judicial and law enforcement ties. That's on top of deals signed in June 2008. All told, there have been nine pacts inked with Beijing during Ma's first year.
Moreover, there are other signs of reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing dropped its objections to Taiwan participating this week in the World Health Assembly, the yearly gathering of World Health Organization members. And it appears the two sides will complete a wide-ranging Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement sometime in the coming months and maybe even a "peace agreement."
At first glance, the U.S. should be happy with the results of Ma's "diplomatic truce" with Beijing. Chen Shui-bian, Ma's charismatic predecessor, riled both Washington and Beijing with his independence- minded moves, thereby complicating America's relations with the Chinese. Ma has, with some deft moves, taken Taiwan off the list of the world's hotspots. Peace, in a very real sense, is breaking out across the Taiwan Strait.
So what's not to like about recent developments? Unfortunately, a lot. For one thing, Ma's administration has been able to make such fast progress in cross-strait relations by compromising his republic's sovereignty. For instance, the government in Taiwan is now participating in World Health Organization activities, when that institution describes the island as "China (Province of Taiwan)." It's a sign that Ma has made a critical concession to Beijing.
Ma says he has no intention of surrendering to the Chinese, often repeating his "Three Nos" policy of no independence, no unification and no war. Although it is unlikely he wants to reduce his status and become the governor of China's 34th province, there are elements in his Kuomintang party--led by former leader Lien Chan--that clearly want to join the so-called Motherland. From all indications, the telegenic Ma does not control his party and many of its hardline members tolerate him only because he is the Kuomintang's only politician who can win presidential elections.
Although he may not be seeking unification, Ma is pushing his country in that direction nonetheless. The agreements he has sponsored--and the ones he contemplates- -will give Beijing economic leverage that will inevitably weaken resistance to Chinese rule. Tellingly, he has refused to submit the China agreements to ratification by the island's legislature. The failure to do so indicates contempt for democratic norms, especially because the pacts were negotiated not by the governments of Taiwan and China but by their ruling parties, and they were signed by nongovernmental organizations.
The failure to allow formal ratification is, unfortunately, just one sign of the erosion of democracy on the island. First and foremost, President Ma has engaged in what June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami has called an "across-the-board- purge-your- opponents effort," starting with former president Chen and continuing through the roster of the previous administration.
Moreover, Ma has been undermining democratic institutions by constricting the right to protest, intimidating the citizenry and pressuring the country's media. Some Taiwanese even fear that the Kuomintang will cancel the 2012 presidential election, and with each passing week that fear seems less like a partisan rant and more like a well-founded concern.
The ruling party is returning not only to its Chinese roots but its Leninist ones as well. Successive American administrations have worried that Beijing would try to alter Taiwan's political status without the consent of the Taiwanese. Up to now, no one thought that the Taipei government might do that to its own people instead.
The pro-China elements in the Kuomintang know that the Taiwanese would never willingly agree to join with Beijing in any type of political union. Although most polling on the island is suspect, the vast majority of surveys show that the percentages of the population considering themselves "Chinese" only, and those wanting to unify with China, are both in the single digits and dropping. So the only way diehard Mainlanders can make the island a part of China is for them to destroy Taiwan's democracy first.
Washington, however, is saying not a word about the worrisome developments. Yet that is a mistake for many reasons.
First, China's authoritarianism is on the march and Taiwan is an inspiration to free peoples everywhere.
Second, America's Asian policy is anchored on defending Japan. As a quick look at a map will reveal, the islands making up Taiwan protect the southern approaches to the Japanese archipelago. It would, therefore, be difficult for America to defend Japan if Taiwan became part of the People's Republic.
If the Pentagon is not able to protect Japan, South Korea would be surrounded and would surely fall into Beijing's lap as well. With its two formal alliances gone, the U.S. would be out of Asia. Taiwan is the key to keeping the U.S. in the game.
Third, ceding Taiwan would undoubtedly embolden a territorially hungry Beijing. China asserts sovereignty over, among other things, the continental shelves of Japan and five southeast Asian countries. Incredibly, Beijing appears to maintain that the entire South China Sea is an internal Chinese lake, thereby impinging on the right of free passage on, under and over international waters. Giving up Taiwan would only embolden China to press its claims with even more confidence and vigor--and it would bolster Beijing's weak legal positions by giving it Taipei's territorial rights.
Finally, losing Taiwan would send horrible messages to American allies, friends and foes in the region--and elsewhere. So we have a lot to lose if Beijing swallows Taiwan whole. That, unfortunately, is looking increasingly possible as the island begins its second year under Ma Ying-jeou.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.
On Wednesday, Ma Ying-jeou marked his first anniversary as president of Taiwan by calling his initial year "fruitful." And he had just cause for doing so. His most notable accomplishment so far has been a marked improvement in relations between the island republic and China. "In one year, we have transformed the strait from a dangerous flashpoint to a conduit of peace and prosperity," he told reporters in Taipei.
Last month, Taipei and Beijing, which both claim to govern "China," entered into historic agreements covering financial cooperation, regularly scheduled flights and judicial and law enforcement ties. That's on top of deals signed in June 2008. All told, there have been nine pacts inked with Beijing during Ma's first year.
Moreover, there are other signs of reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing dropped its objections to Taiwan participating this week in the World Health Assembly, the yearly gathering of World Health Organization members. And it appears the two sides will complete a wide-ranging Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement sometime in the coming months and maybe even a "peace agreement."
At first glance, the U.S. should be happy with the results of Ma's "diplomatic truce" with Beijing. Chen Shui-bian, Ma's charismatic predecessor, riled both Washington and Beijing with his independence- minded moves, thereby complicating America's relations with the Chinese. Ma has, with some deft moves, taken Taiwan off the list of the world's hotspots. Peace, in a very real sense, is breaking out across the Taiwan Strait.
So what's not to like about recent developments? Unfortunately, a lot. For one thing, Ma's administration has been able to make such fast progress in cross-strait relations by compromising his republic's sovereignty. For instance, the government in Taiwan is now participating in World Health Organization activities, when that institution describes the island as "China (Province of Taiwan)." It's a sign that Ma has made a critical concession to Beijing.
Ma says he has no intention of surrendering to the Chinese, often repeating his "Three Nos" policy of no independence, no unification and no war. Although it is unlikely he wants to reduce his status and become the governor of China's 34th province, there are elements in his Kuomintang party--led by former leader Lien Chan--that clearly want to join the so-called Motherland. From all indications, the telegenic Ma does not control his party and many of its hardline members tolerate him only because he is the Kuomintang's only politician who can win presidential elections.
Although he may not be seeking unification, Ma is pushing his country in that direction nonetheless. The agreements he has sponsored--and the ones he contemplates- -will give Beijing economic leverage that will inevitably weaken resistance to Chinese rule. Tellingly, he has refused to submit the China agreements to ratification by the island's legislature. The failure to do so indicates contempt for democratic norms, especially because the pacts were negotiated not by the governments of Taiwan and China but by their ruling parties, and they were signed by nongovernmental organizations.
The failure to allow formal ratification is, unfortunately, just one sign of the erosion of democracy on the island. First and foremost, President Ma has engaged in what June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami has called an "across-the-board- purge-your- opponents effort," starting with former president Chen and continuing through the roster of the previous administration.
Moreover, Ma has been undermining democratic institutions by constricting the right to protest, intimidating the citizenry and pressuring the country's media. Some Taiwanese even fear that the Kuomintang will cancel the 2012 presidential election, and with each passing week that fear seems less like a partisan rant and more like a well-founded concern.
The ruling party is returning not only to its Chinese roots but its Leninist ones as well. Successive American administrations have worried that Beijing would try to alter Taiwan's political status without the consent of the Taiwanese. Up to now, no one thought that the Taipei government might do that to its own people instead.
The pro-China elements in the Kuomintang know that the Taiwanese would never willingly agree to join with Beijing in any type of political union. Although most polling on the island is suspect, the vast majority of surveys show that the percentages of the population considering themselves "Chinese" only, and those wanting to unify with China, are both in the single digits and dropping. So the only way diehard Mainlanders can make the island a part of China is for them to destroy Taiwan's democracy first.
Washington, however, is saying not a word about the worrisome developments. Yet that is a mistake for many reasons.
First, China's authoritarianism is on the march and Taiwan is an inspiration to free peoples everywhere.
Second, America's Asian policy is anchored on defending Japan. As a quick look at a map will reveal, the islands making up Taiwan protect the southern approaches to the Japanese archipelago. It would, therefore, be difficult for America to defend Japan if Taiwan became part of the People's Republic.
If the Pentagon is not able to protect Japan, South Korea would be surrounded and would surely fall into Beijing's lap as well. With its two formal alliances gone, the U.S. would be out of Asia. Taiwan is the key to keeping the U.S. in the game.
Third, ceding Taiwan would undoubtedly embolden a territorially hungry Beijing. China asserts sovereignty over, among other things, the continental shelves of Japan and five southeast Asian countries. Incredibly, Beijing appears to maintain that the entire South China Sea is an internal Chinese lake, thereby impinging on the right of free passage on, under and over international waters. Giving up Taiwan would only embolden China to press its claims with even more confidence and vigor--and it would bolster Beijing's weak legal positions by giving it Taipei's territorial rights.
Finally, losing Taiwan would send horrible messages to American allies, friends and foes in the region--and elsewhere. So we have a lot to lose if Beijing swallows Taiwan whole. That, unfortunately, is looking increasingly possible as the island begins its second year under Ma Ying-jeou.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.
社論－芬蘭的啟示
* 2009-05-22
* 工商時報
* 【本報訊】
金融危機最嚴峻時，全球曾經戰慄恐懼，深恐1930年代的經濟大蕭條重現。日本「失落的10年」因此變成頂尖的研究課題，大家都想從日本經驗中，提煉經濟對策，阻止世界墜入蕭條；就像醫學界想從檢體中取得H1N1病毒株，研製疫苗一樣。其實，近世曾受長期經濟蕭條折磨的國家，不止日本，芬蘭也有慘痛的10年。而且從芬蘭經驗中所能獲得的啟示，對台灣更具啟發性。
芬蘭與俄國接壤，就像台灣與中國相望。俄國曾經統治芬蘭110年，直到一戰結束後，芬蘭才獲得獨立。但是，芬蘭始終無法擺脫蘇俄的覬覦。1939年蘇聯揮兵入侵芬蘭，俄芬戰爭爆發。芬蘭人奮起抵抗，卻得不到當時的國聯和英、美、法等民主陣營的奧援。芬蘭被迫與希特勒同盟，與納粹德國共同抗蘇。芬蘭人殲滅了數10萬的俄軍，保住疆土，捍衛主權，但是隨著希特勒的覆亡，芬蘭也淪為二戰的敗戰國。
戰後，俄國要求割地賠款，賠款分8年以199類貨物折抵。賠償品中，木材、木器、紙張與紙漿這類傳統的芬蘭產出，只占賠償總項的28％，而船舶、機械、線纜與電路板等產品則占72％的大宗，偏偏這些主要賠償品是芬蘭工業的弱項，出口值在戰前僅占全國的3％。
面對鉅額的賠償，原本只為內需而存在的工業，例如造船業，竟然以意想不到的速度擴張。因此，到了1952年賠償還清時，芬蘭經濟已經徹底改造。此後，芬蘭的工業，無論產品的品項或產能均大幅躍增。長達8年的賠償期，為芬蘭累積了無數的生產技術、管理經驗和貿易知識，這些工商技能都是戰前芬蘭所欠缺的。
芬蘭因禍得福，從一個農林國變成一個以船舶、金屬、化工、橡膠、皮革與紡織為主體的工業國。想一想Nokia的成就，原來這一切都是其來有自。
回顧台灣與中國的經濟關係，台商西進，產業西移，曾經給台灣帶來多少轉型的陣痛，但是也賜福台灣一個千載難逢的產業升級契機。如今島上有17座12吋晶圓廠，TFT-LCD面板廠的產量和產值冠居全球。而高科技產業頂尖的管理與運籌能力，則舒緩了金融海嘯的破壞力。這一切不也是因禍得福，其來有自。
芬蘭的故事尚未結束，好戲還在後頭。芬蘭因為對蘇賠償而工業化，雙方的貿易關係就此緊密相連，兩國簽訂一系列的5年貿易協定，芬蘭出口各種工業品交換蘇聯的原油。冷戰時期，芬蘭甚且是蘇聯接觸西方科技與資本主義商品的唯一窗口，而蘇聯則是芬蘭最重要的出口國。以1988年為例，85％的船舶外銷蘇聯，53％的運輸工具出口蘇聯，29％的紡織、食品與鞋類運往蘇聯。蘇聯提攜芬蘭的經濟，但是福兮禍之所伏也。
蘇聯在1991年解體，芬蘭立即陷入經濟大蕭條。GDP下降11％，投資減少55％，失業率從4％攀升到18.5％，股市跌幅超過60％，而且歷經10年無法恢復元氣。癥結就在於芬蘭的出口高度集中在一個市場上，經濟太依賴蘇聯了。
綜觀全局，台灣的產業和進出口貿易可能因為ECFA而更依賴中國市場；台灣的銀行、證券與保險將因為簽訂MOU以及互設金融機構而與中國之信貸風險連動；而開放中資來台，可能將台灣的就業與民生變成中國不可分割的一部分。現在就算馬總統親口保證，任內不會與中國談判政治議題，但是思及台灣在經濟上可能淪為中國的附屬，可能變成另一個1990年代的芬蘭，就令人不寒而慄。
本報系上周的民調顯示：36.8％的民眾認為馬政府推動兩岸交流的速度「太快」，45％的民眾認為「剛剛好」，只有7％的民眾認為「太慢」。而工商建研會上月委託政大選研中心所做的民調則顯示：56％的民眾「非常擔心」或「擔心」台灣的經濟高度依賴中國。這兩項民調均顯示，民間確實有憂患意識。
克魯曼訪台期間，曾經用加拿大與美國比喻台灣與中國的關係。是項比擬並不恰當，因為規模相去太遠。如果用芬蘭與蘇聯的關係比擬兩岸之關係，可能較恰當。所以，芬蘭的故事值得省思，芬蘭的啟示，財經當局應當警惕：兩岸經貿往來固有必要，但要維持在什麼程度，仍不可掉以輕心。
* 工商時報
* 【本報訊】
金融危機最嚴峻時，全球曾經戰慄恐懼，深恐1930年代的經濟大蕭條重現。日本「失落的10年」因此變成頂尖的研究課題，大家都想從日本經驗中，提煉經濟對策，阻止世界墜入蕭條；就像醫學界想從檢體中取得H1N1病毒株，研製疫苗一樣。其實，近世曾受長期經濟蕭條折磨的國家，不止日本，芬蘭也有慘痛的10年。而且從芬蘭經驗中所能獲得的啟示，對台灣更具啟發性。
芬蘭與俄國接壤，就像台灣與中國相望。俄國曾經統治芬蘭110年，直到一戰結束後，芬蘭才獲得獨立。但是，芬蘭始終無法擺脫蘇俄的覬覦。1939年蘇聯揮兵入侵芬蘭，俄芬戰爭爆發。芬蘭人奮起抵抗，卻得不到當時的國聯和英、美、法等民主陣營的奧援。芬蘭被迫與希特勒同盟，與納粹德國共同抗蘇。芬蘭人殲滅了數10萬的俄軍，保住疆土，捍衛主權，但是隨著希特勒的覆亡，芬蘭也淪為二戰的敗戰國。
戰後，俄國要求割地賠款，賠款分8年以199類貨物折抵。賠償品中，木材、木器、紙張與紙漿這類傳統的芬蘭產出，只占賠償總項的28％，而船舶、機械、線纜與電路板等產品則占72％的大宗，偏偏這些主要賠償品是芬蘭工業的弱項，出口值在戰前僅占全國的3％。
面對鉅額的賠償，原本只為內需而存在的工業，例如造船業，竟然以意想不到的速度擴張。因此，到了1952年賠償還清時，芬蘭經濟已經徹底改造。此後，芬蘭的工業，無論產品的品項或產能均大幅躍增。長達8年的賠償期，為芬蘭累積了無數的生產技術、管理經驗和貿易知識，這些工商技能都是戰前芬蘭所欠缺的。
芬蘭因禍得福，從一個農林國變成一個以船舶、金屬、化工、橡膠、皮革與紡織為主體的工業國。想一想Nokia的成就，原來這一切都是其來有自。
回顧台灣與中國的經濟關係，台商西進，產業西移，曾經給台灣帶來多少轉型的陣痛，但是也賜福台灣一個千載難逢的產業升級契機。如今島上有17座12吋晶圓廠，TFT-LCD面板廠的產量和產值冠居全球。而高科技產業頂尖的管理與運籌能力，則舒緩了金融海嘯的破壞力。這一切不也是因禍得福，其來有自。
芬蘭的故事尚未結束，好戲還在後頭。芬蘭因為對蘇賠償而工業化，雙方的貿易關係就此緊密相連，兩國簽訂一系列的5年貿易協定，芬蘭出口各種工業品交換蘇聯的原油。冷戰時期，芬蘭甚且是蘇聯接觸西方科技與資本主義商品的唯一窗口，而蘇聯則是芬蘭最重要的出口國。以1988年為例，85％的船舶外銷蘇聯，53％的運輸工具出口蘇聯，29％的紡織、食品與鞋類運往蘇聯。蘇聯提攜芬蘭的經濟，但是福兮禍之所伏也。
蘇聯在1991年解體，芬蘭立即陷入經濟大蕭條。GDP下降11％，投資減少55％，失業率從4％攀升到18.5％，股市跌幅超過60％，而且歷經10年無法恢復元氣。癥結就在於芬蘭的出口高度集中在一個市場上，經濟太依賴蘇聯了。
綜觀全局，台灣的產業和進出口貿易可能因為ECFA而更依賴中國市場；台灣的銀行、證券與保險將因為簽訂MOU以及互設金融機構而與中國之信貸風險連動；而開放中資來台，可能將台灣的就業與民生變成中國不可分割的一部分。現在就算馬總統親口保證，任內不會與中國談判政治議題，但是思及台灣在經濟上可能淪為中國的附屬，可能變成另一個1990年代的芬蘭，就令人不寒而慄。
本報系上周的民調顯示：36.8％的民眾認為馬政府推動兩岸交流的速度「太快」，45％的民眾認為「剛剛好」，只有7％的民眾認為「太慢」。而工商建研會上月委託政大選研中心所做的民調則顯示：56％的民眾「非常擔心」或「擔心」台灣的經濟高度依賴中國。這兩項民調均顯示，民間確實有憂患意識。
克魯曼訪台期間，曾經用加拿大與美國比喻台灣與中國的關係。是項比擬並不恰當，因為規模相去太遠。如果用芬蘭與蘇聯的關係比擬兩岸之關係，可能較恰當。所以，芬蘭的故事值得省思，芬蘭的啟示，財經當局應當警惕：兩岸經貿往來固有必要，但要維持在什麼程度，仍不可掉以輕心。
Sunday, May 17, 2009
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